Pipeline Close Likelihood

Every open deal carries a calibrated probability of closing, so the pipeline is weighted by P(won) instead of summed and each stage shows its predicted win rate, learned from the deals that closed before.

Pipeline Close Likelihood: screenshot from the Company AI demo
_predict_queryCross-vertical
Production anchorEach stage of Company AI's synthetic pipeline shows a predicted win rate, from 24% at qualified to 34% at negotiation, learned from the deals that closed before rather than set by hand.

The problem

Pipeline value is usually the optimistic sum of everything open, or a sum weighted by a stage percentage someone typed into the CRM years ago. Neither reflects what actually happened to deals like these.

How it works

_predict of won for each open deal, conditioned on what is known before the outcome (stage, blocker, whether there is a champion), with $why for the factors. The weighted pipeline multiplies each deal by that probability.

The stage rates in the demo sit close together, from 24% to 34%, because on its synthetic history the stage alone says little about the outcome. That is calibration working: the numbers move as far as the evidence does, and no further.

For the full architecture, see the technology overview. For the broader narrative across multiple use cases, read The Predictive Application.

See it live

This use case runs in Company AI, a reference application you run yourself. There is no hosted demo, so the link opens its illustrated tour and source on GitHub: Company AI tour on GitHub →